Category Archives: Weather

Weather conditions and reports for Vermont

Temperatures to drop; snow by the end of the week

Stefan Hard / Staff PhotoTwo friends walk past the First Congregational Church in Randolph Center as heavy fog Sunday envelops higher elevations with a January thaw in full swing.

Stefan Hard / Staff Photo
Two friends walk past the First Congregational Church in Randolph Center as heavy fog Sunday envelops higher elevations with a January thaw in full swing.

The grass is showing in patches on the lawn, and the driveway slush is deep – we’ll need to shovel that off to the side before it freezes or we’ll have a rough and bumpy – and slippery road. The ice dams that had been trapped at the gutters broke apart and fell to the ground over the weekend – dangerous icefalls.

However, it’s looking like winter is on her way back to Vermont. We’ll be seeing temperatures dropping day by day, with potential for some snow squalls – although no real storm – by Thursday or Friday.

The forecast for today:

Showers likely to start, may change to isolated flurries over ridgelines by midday as they end. Becoming mostly sunny during the PM. Morning highs 40-45. W-SW wind 5-15 mph shifting to WNW 10-15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25. Wind diminishing to light and variable.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Highs 33-38. Light, variable wind.
Tuesday Nt: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-25.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. Highs 34-38.
Wednesday Nt: Variable clouds. A slight chance for snow showers to develop. Lows 23-28.
Thursday: Early clouds and scattered snow showers, then partly cloudy, breezy, turning colder. AM highs 33-38.
Thursday Nt: Partly cloudy; scattered flurries over and west of the Greens. Much colder. Lows 5-15.
Friday: Partly sunny, scattered mountain flurries. Highs 20-30 from along RT 4 to the Massachusetts border.

Forecast Discussion from the Fairbanks Museum in St. Johnsbury:
A cold front bisecting the state to start the day will continue eastward this morning, and colder, drier air will infiltrate the region on a gentle but persistent west to northwest breeze. HIGH pressure now centered over Kansas will elongate to the northeast during the next 48 hours to give us generally quiet and incrementally colder conditions day by day.  Meanwhile, the northern branch of the polar jet stream is strengthening once again as the polar vortex reforms over northern Hudson Bay. Disturbances rotating around this vortex will approach us later Wednesday, and help drive an arctic front through the region later Wednesday night into early Thursday. That front will be accompanied by snow showers and perhaps a few snow squalls.

Rain predicted to arrive tonight; warm weekend ahead

Stockbridge Tweed River

Well, it’s been a good little stretch for snowmobilers and skiiers, but here comes the rain. Today: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of afternoon rain showers, possibly mixing with sleet or freezing rain. Highs in the mid 30s. Light south winds.

Tonight: Cloudy with rain showers likely; freezing rain also possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Winds continued light south.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain showers through midday. Highs in the low to mid 40s.

Extended Forecast:
Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 30s.
Sunday: A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 40s.
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy with lows around 30.
Monday: Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. High around 37.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 23.

Forecast discussion from the Fairbanks Museum in St. Johnsbury:
A warming trend will take hold this weekend as an upper-level ridge crests overhead. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will continue as upper-level
trough builds in very slowly from the west, with the trough axis unlikely to cross the region until late in the work week. At that time another spate
of arctic air could be in the works. But in the meantime temperatures will warm to well above the seasonal averages through Sunday, and then temper
gradually through the first few days of next week. In the short term, a mid-level disturbance will bring scattered showers of rain and possibly freezing
rain to the region overnight, with light rain possibly lingering into tomorrow morning. A weak cold front will bring another chance of showers on Sunday.
Prior to the passage of this front, though, Sunday is likely to be the warmest day in the forecast period.

Sun today; rain tomorrow, high temps this weekend

Morning Sky, Jan. 10 '13

 

The possible rain last night did not materialize for much of the state, although the clouds came in and blocked the sky. This morning, with temperatures in the mid-30s across the state, we saw some of our early snow start to recede, at least in the valleys. There’s still plenty up in the hills for skiing.

The forecast today is for mostly sun – the barometer is rising over most of the state – but we’ve got a front moving in tomorrow, with temperatures in the 40s and rain forecast. It’s bad news for snowmobilers, who spent last winter cruising the state on four wheels and marked roads instead of on sleds and trails.

But, some snowmobile industry reps we talked with recently told us they anticipate a snowy January – what’s left of it, anyway. We’re not sure how they know this, but we’re inclined to trust them since that’s one industry that would invest in long-term weather pattern research.

Anyway, today we’re looking at mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-30s north and 40s south; wind picking up in the afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph.

Tonight, it will stay clear mostly, with lows in the teens, then warm up Friday and a low pressure front will move in , bringing a strong chance of rain. The weekend looks similar – highs in the 30s/40s, chance of rain, with lows overnight in the 30s.

Forecast discussion from the Fairbanks Museum in St. Johnsbury:
Surface high pressure is drifting in from the west and should be directly overhead by this evening. This will allow for good radiational cooling overnight, thanks to clear skies, light winds and snow pack. This should be the coldest night for a few days. Southerly winds will build into the region tomorrow and tomorrow night, ahead of a complex low pressure system over the western Great Lakes. This system will then rapidly weaken, although by then the associated warm front will have tried to bring spotty rain showers to the region late tomorrow and tomorrow night.

A weak cold front will move through the region early Sunday, possibly bringing with it a few more rain showers. But precipitation won’t be the big story over the weekend; it will be the temperatures, with many locations getting into the 40s on Saturday and Sunday, and possibly seeing overnight lows around or above freezing tomorrow night and Saturday night.

Rain and warm for the weekend

If you’re already thinking about the weekend, plan on it being warm – really warm. Saturday and Sunday are looking like highs in the upper 40s, with rain probable Friday.

Today, you can expect mostly sunny through midday, becoming mostly cloudy into tonight. Lows will be around 30. Tomorrow, highs around 30 and cloudy; Friday we have a chance of rain by midday.

Forecast discussion from the Fairbanks Museum in St. Johnsbury:
Unseasonably mild temperatures today will be somewhat offset by increaing southwesterly winds. These winds will be kicking up ahead of a cold front that will be approaching the Champlain Valley by evening. Some light and very widely scattered precipitation is possible with this system tonight. The front will sweep through very rapidly overnight, and will make itwell off the New England coast by sunrise Thursday.

Winds will turn to the northwest behind the front. High pressure will then move overhead Thursday night, making for a tranquil and chilly night. After that, an approaching weather system over the Great Lakes will kick up another southerly air flow out ahead of it, bringing another period of above-average temperatures for Friday and through the weekend. It will also bring the chance of precipitation, largely in the form of rain.

Chilly morning; warmer day

January dawn

It was chilly again this morning, with single digits across much of the state, but it’s looking to get up into the high 30s and low 40s by the afternoon, with some breezes moving in. The dawn was pretty awesome, with the sickle moon above the sunrise. But we’ve got some rain or snow in the near-term forecast; it looks like the January thaw of 2013 is upon us:

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 18-26—warmest along the Rte 7 corridor. Light, variable wind east of the Greens; south 10 mph or less over and west of the Greens.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Slight chance for a rain or snow shower during the PM. Highs 38-43. SW wind 10-15 mph.

Wednesday Nt: Variable clouds. Isolated mountain snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, breezy. Highs 35-40.

Thursday Nt: Mostly clear to start, then increasing clouds. Rising chance for mixed precipitation by morning. Lows 24-29.

Friday: Mixed precipitation likely. Mix changing to rain, then tapering to drizzle during the PM. Highs 34-38 east, and 37-41 west of the Greens.

Friday Nt: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Lows 32-37.
Saturday: Partly cloudy. Mild. Highs 45-50.

The forecast discussion:
A five or six day spell of unseasonably mild weather is beginning this morning. Aside from isolated to scattered rain or snow showers that’ll pop up Wednesday afternoon and continue overnight primarily over northern Vermont, associated with the passage of a modest cold front and subsequent upslope northwest flow, we’ll be dry until Friday morning. Temperatures will climb above freezing today and tomorrow, cool a couple of degrees for Thursday, and hover in the 30s to near 40 on Friday. On that day, low pressure now over northern Mexico will lift into the northeast US, accompanied by a shield of light to moderate precipitation. Following it, a deep-layered southwest flow will keep the temperature at or a little above freezing Friday night, and well above freezing Saturday. It’s a January thaw…just a little early.

Flurries, then sun today; milder weather this week

The days are getting longer, and we’ve got some warmer weather on tap this week – not too much warmer, but certainly milder than last week. It’s actually looking a lot like great sugaring weather – in the teens at night, then the high thirties / low 40s during the day.

But we shouldn’t think too much about sugaring season yet – still quite a ways to go in winter.

The Vermont forecast from the Fairbanks Museum in St. Johnsbury:

Isolated early flurries, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 15-20 north, 20-32 south. North wind 8-15 mph this morning becoming light and variable this afternoon.

For Tonight and Beyond:

Tonight: A clear start, then partly cloudy late. Lows from 2 below to 10 above zero, temperature steady or rising slowly late. Light, variable wind, becoming light southerly over higher terrain.
Tuesday: Becoming mostly sunny. Milder. Highs 30-35. S-SW wind freshening to 10-15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday Nt: Mostly clear. Lows in the 10s.
Wednesday: Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance for snow showers during the PM. Highs 34-38.
Wednesday Nt: Mostly cloudy, chance for snow showers. Lows in the mid 20s.
Thursday: Chance for early AM snow showers, then mostly sunny, breezy. Highs 30-35.
Thursday Nt: Mostly clear. Lows 12-22.
Friday: Increasing clouds. Chance for light mixed precipitation to develop. Highs 35-40.

Forecast Discussion:
Another short shot of cold air is feeding into the state this morning behind a cold front now sagging across southern New England. The real bite to the air will be limited to the northern half of the state, though, given the shallow nature of the fresh air mass. HIGH pressure centered over southwest Quebec now will slide rapidly southeast, and by day’s end will be near Bangor ME. Northerly wind through midday will slacken quickly this afternoon, then veer into the south overnight and milder air will once again surge northeastward.  But moisture will be scant, so aside from an increase in clouds as the front returns, there’ll be little effect aside from a late-night rise in temperature.  For the rest of the week, pacific air masses will be over us more often than not, so temperatures will average well above normal, and precipitation below normal. The only chance for measurable precipitation looks to be Wednesday evening with the passage of a moderately vigorous cold front. It’ll probably trigger snow showers on its way through.

Cold, cold morning – snow expected, but maybe warm next week

The National Weather Service issued a report yesterday saying that 2012 was Vermont’s warmest year on record. It sure didn’t feel like it this morning. The car temperature was -10 degrees Farenheit in Rutland at 6 a.m.; the bank temperature was -16, and the Weather Service reported -11 in Rutland, -15 in Danby Four Corners, -14 in Montpelier and -17 in Morrisville at 6 a.m.

Things are warming up, though – at the top of Mount Mansfield, where it’s a balmy -4 at 8 a.m. Everywhere else, it seems the temperatures have dropped – at 8 a.m. it was -17 in Montpelier, -19 in Morrisville, and -13 in Rutland.

The weather forecast has this cold snap moving off to the east, with intermittent light snow coming in tonight into Friday evening, with possible slight accumulations, especially in the mountains.

It’s looking like more snow squalls will crop up on Sunday into Monday, with the possibility of warmer air – like 40s warmer – moving in toward the end of next week.

2012 was Vermont’s warmest year on record, Weather Service says

BURLINGTON — The National Weather Service says 2012 was the warmest year on record in Vermont’s largest city.
Statistics kept by the Weather Service show the yearly mean temperature for Burlington last year was 50 degrees, beating the previous record of 48.4 degrees, which was set in 1998.
Records have been kept in Burlington since 1884.
The average yearly temperature from 1980-2010 was 46 degrees.
The top four warmest years on record have been since 1998.
The fifth warmest year was in 1898.

Cold, with snow likely

It’s another chilly morning – after last year’s (non-) winter it’s taking a while to get used to a real one. The forecast shows snow for today, Friday and Sunday, although it’s just showers, nothing like another major storm. But snow is snow, and it’s welcome for the resorts and the sledders, who were out in force on the VAST trails last weekend.

Today is set to see some snow showers, with highs in the mid-teens north and around 20 south. The snow should taper off in the afternoon, and it will be cold again tonight.

Thurs: Partly cloudy, high around 20. Very cold tonight, probably single digits or below zero.
Friday: Scattered snow showers starting in early morning, continuing through the day with highs in the mid-20s.
Saturday: Parlty to mostly cloudy; highs in upper 20s.
Sunday: Snow, highs in the upper 20s.

Forecast discussion from the Fairbanks Museum in St. Johnsbury:
More cold air invading from Canada is on tap for today. This will come courtesy of a weak, fast moving low-pressure system that has dived southeastward out of Ontario. The precipitation-producing part of this system is dissipating, but an associated clod front will sweep in behind it. Driving this front to the south is surface high pressure over Quebec, combined wit a strong center of low pressure at the surface, spinning counterclockwise over Newfoundland and Labrador. This will pump in yet more arctic air this afternoon, plunging the daytime wind chills into the single digits. As the clouds clear out and the winds die down late tonight, it will set the stage for the coldest night of the season so far, with lows from 5 below to 5 above in many valley locations. Thursday a surface low will be forming over the northern Great Lakes an heading our way Thursday night, bringing another round of light snow.

Winter is finally here – Chilly days, snow off and on this week

Well, it’s starting to look like a real winter, after a year when we never really saw winter. This week’s going to have some more snow, mostly light flurries off and on, but the temperatures should keep the 12-20 inches we got across the state on the ground.

Today: Partly to mostly cloudy. Slight chance for some mountain flurries. Highs 26-33, light NW wind to 15 mph.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, scattered snow showers mostly in the mountains, and mostly after midnight. Lows 15-20, with light winds. Small amount of accumulation possible, more along tops of the Green Mountains.

Tuesday: Scattered early snow showers quickly ending, then decreasing clouds and turning colder. Highs 20-26—temperature falling during the afternoon. NW wind 8-15 mph.

Extended Forecast:

Tuesday Nt: Partly cloudy. A few hilltop ice crystals. Lows 5B-5A.

Wednesday: Thin partial clouds. Highs 11-17.

Wednesday Nt: Mostly clear. Lows 0-8B.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. Highs 15-20.

Thursday Nt: Slight chance for flurries or snow showers. Lows in the single digits above zero.

Forecast discussion:

A narrow ridge of high pressure will slide east of the state by midday, and the wind will back into a milder west-southwest direction. This will pull some moisture into northern Vermont later this afternoon and overnight ahead of an arctic front that should arrive here a couple of hours before sunrise on New Year’s Day. As is typical in these situations, snow showers will stream out over far northern VT ahead of the front for several hours, then a narrowing band will sink southward with the front over central and southern Vermont. Given the expected fluffy nature of the snow, small variations in melted precipitation totals will result in fairly wide variances in snowfall. There is the potential for some snow squalls over far northern sections of the state just ahead of the front during the wee hours of New Year’s Day. Thereafter, we’re in for a few days of deep chill.